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| Nomisma: the sales decline but keep prices |
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According to a recent report of Nomisma, the recent financial crisis and the resulting rationing of credit associated with macroeconomic slowdown in progress, have forced, after 9 years of uninterrupted growth, the Italian property market to fold. This is a decline currently limited to trading volumes in major cities, however, threatens to extend to exchange rate, if the continuing weakness that characterizes much in demand. Expectations of widespread decline, however poorly supported by economic fundamentals have led to a further increase in average time of sale (come to exceed 5 months for used homes) and the discount practised in the negotiations (ki bo for all residential ' 11.6%), returned on both levels that had preceded the start of the expansionary phase. After the continuous increases in recent years, 2007 will close with a decline in transactions estimated homes in at least 3.3%, but with peaks well above the 10% in large urban centres. As has already happened in the past, but on this occasion are the tip of markets to anticipate trends. In a context of weak demand prices of houses continues, however, to demonstrate excellent strength, making sign a quantifiable increase in the 2% every six months and 5.1% over 2007. Better even was the performance of the real estate business, where growth on an annual basis range from +5.8% +7.1 shops and industrial sheds%. From the point of view of real estate values seems, therefore, continue to Channel descendant of Corsican opened in 2004. The slowdown is evident beyond the season, by changes in the prices of major real estate types, but most accredits the image of soft landing that is not exploding from speculative bubble. In a difficult and not so much for phenomenologies array of real estate, but rather to operate the mechanisms of psychological origin, the recent trend is a solid appiglio wh The reasons that tend to exclude prices down must be identified in the historical trend of quotations not result in appreciable reductions in the average nominal values - especially outside the largest urban developments are cyclical imperceptible, while the tendency to preserve and enhance values is accurate - in the already modest level of debt rating of Italian families, and in less tension on property prices recorded in Italy during the current cycle, compared to most other countries. The prospects for 2008 are for further contraction of the settlement, which is likely to be back below the threshold of 800 thousand units compravendute and stabilising prices. If the average Italian is possible to foresee an increase in prices on the 2,5-3%, we can not exclude flex punctual at urban larger. The extent of any flex will continue to depend more reaction from the application of exogenous shocks to the financial support which is not from the deterioration of macroeconomic determinants that guide the development of the market. o cling to not suffer the call of Cassandre "bubble at all costs ".HIGHLIGHTS For the first time in the cycle expansive property receiving decline in the values and purchase exceeds those who feel stability. Significantly decreases the proportion of families who prefer real estate investment compared to other forms of investment, but the majority share rhymes always (going from 70% to 55%). Prices still grow, but at rates incremental increasingly content. The average annual increase in the prices of houses stands at 5.1%, the half-yearly at 2% only in Florence there is a slight fall in values (-0.2%). The business segments grow more of the homes in a year: + 6.3% offices (2.7% semester), +5.8% stores (2.3% biannual) + 7.1% sheds . Continue to slow the race indebtedness from July 2006 to June 2007 the payments grow, 1, 2% compared with the same period last year, when the data of the years have always marked the first double-digit increases. In the first half 2007, the number of loans decreased by 3% compared with the end of 2006. The rate suffering of loans outstanding passes from 1, 5% in December 2006 to 1, 8% in June 2007. The 75% of the loans disbursed in the second half of 2007 is a fixed rate and approximately half of its total length seriore to 20 years. For the first time in the last 10 years also loans for the purchase of real estate business are mainly fixed rate contracts. In 2007 the number of homes sold buy decreased by 3.4% with peaks even higher than the negative 10% in metropolitan cities. The average time of sale and lease stretch further and are respectively 5 and 3 months for homes. The discounts at the time of sale and will grow even lead to 11.6% for homes. For the time new homes sales and leases are lower by about 10% compared to housing use and the discounts are less than half (5.2%). The European interest rates should remain stable until the end of the year, while US and UK have even been lowered. Still growing industry of real estate funds, which reached a total net value estimated at 22.8 billion euros and real estate investments that graze the 29.8 billion euros. Having reduced to the summer horse, now the gap between the prices of funds and values budget has reported around 20%. In half the real estate left on the ground 40% against a decline in the stock market of 15%. Focus on housing leases Over the last thirty years, with the achievement of greater well-being, the condition of the Italian population has improved significantly: standards have improved data on the number of rooms per capita, the average size of apartments, plant and equipment services and the reduction of phenomena of cohabitation. In this period of time the percentage of Italians who lives in a rented house has fallen from over 40% to 18.8%. Today, 72% of households is the home owner where he lives or offers for free. One can therefore estimate that the number of families living in a house located (or the number of homes locate, which is the same) amounts to approximately 4.3 million, compared with just under 7 million thirty years ago. The decrease in housing locate was determined by a number of factors among them, certainly not a marginal role has been played by the rules on rents, which has discouraged investment by the private operators and institutional and policies to promote divestiture of the assets of entities and institutions, once the rent market actors (institutions, insurance companies, local authorities). |
